Published Papers

Carter, David and Poast, Paul. ``Why Do States Build Walls?'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. February 2017: 239-270. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Fordham, Benjamin and Poast, Paul. ``All Alliances are Multilateral: Rethinking Alliance Formation in the International System.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. August 2016: 840-865. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Wiens, David; Paul Poast, and William Roberts Clark. ``The Political Resource Curse: An Empirical Re-Evaluation.'' Political Research Quarterly. December 2014: 783-794. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul and Johannes Urpelainen ``How International Organizations Support Democratization: Preventing Authoritarian Reversals or Promoting Consolidation?'' World Politics. January 2015: 72-113. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE]

Poast, Paul. ``Central Banks at War.'' International Organization. Winter 2015: 63-95. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul and Johannes Urpelainen. ``Fit and Feasible: Why Democratizing States Form, not Join, International Organizations.'' International Studies Quarterly. December 2013: 831-841. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE]

Poast, Paul. ``Can Issue Linkage Improve Treaty Credibility? Buffer State Alliances as a `Hard Case''' Journal of Conflict Resolution. October 2013: 739-764. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Clark, WIlliam Roberts; Sona N. Golder and Paul Poast ``Monetary Institutions and the Survival of

Democratic Leaders.'' International Studies Quarterly. September 2013: 556-567. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul. ``Issue Linkage and International Cooperation: An Empirical Investigation.'' Conflict Management and Peace Science. July 2013: 286-303. [PDF]

Mebane, Walter and Paul Poast. ``Causal Inference without Ignorability: Identification with Nonrandom Assignment and Missing Treatment Data.'' Political Analysis. Spring 2013: 233-251. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul. ``Does Issue Linkage Work?  Evidence from European Alliance Negotiations, 1860 to 1945.'' International Organization. Spring 2012: 277-310. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul. ``(Mis)Using Dyadic Data to Analyze Multilateral Events.''  Political Analysis. Autumn 2010: 403-425. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul. ``Winning the Bid: Analyzing the International Olympic Committee's Host City Selections.''

International Interactions. January-March 2007: 75-95. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES]

Poast, Paul. ``The Wall and Maastricht: The Role of Exogenous Shocks on the Initiation of the EMU and EPU Intergovernmental Conferences.''  Journal of European Integration. September 2004: 281-307. [PDF]

Poast, Paul. ``Lincoln's Gamble: Fear of Intervention and the Onset of the American Civil War'' Security Studies. September 2015: 502-527. [PDF]

Levy, Jack S.; Michael K. McKoy, Paul Poast, and Geoffrey P.R. Wallace. ``Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory.'' American Journal of Political Science. October 2015: 988-1001. [PDF, REPLICATION PAGE, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Horowitz, Michael C., Paul Poast, and Allan C. Stam. ``Domestic Signaling of Commitment Credibility: Military Recruitment and Alliance Formation.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. September 2017: 1682-1710. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Kaoutzanis, Christodoulos; Paul Poast, and Johannes Urpelainen. ``Not Letting `Bad Apples' Spoil the Bunch: Democratization and Forming International Organizations with Strict Accession Rules.'' Review of International Organizations. December 2016: 399-418. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Lupu, Yonaton and Paul Poast. ``Team of Former Rivals: A Multilateral Theory of Nonaggression Pact Formation.'' Journal of Peace Research. May 2016 53: 344-358. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Poast, Paul. ``Dyads are Dead, Long Live Dyads: The Limits (but not Rejection) of Dyadic Designs in International Relations Research.'' International Studies Quarterly. June 2016: 369-374. [PDF]

DiGiuseppe, Matthew and Paul Poast. ``Arms and Democratic Allies.'' British Journal of Political Science. October 2018: 981-1004. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Shea, Patrick and Paul Poast. ``War and Default.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. October 2018: 1876-1904. [PDF, REPLICATION FILES, SUPPLEMENTAL FILES]

Gartzke, Erik and Paul Poast. ``Empirically Assessing The Bargaining Theory of War: Potential and Challenges.'' in William Thompson (ed.) Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. (New York, NY: Oxford University Press). 2018. [PDF]

Poast, Paul. ``Beyond the Sinews of War: The Political Economy of Security as a Subfield.'' Annual Review of Political Science. Vol. 22. 2019: 223–239. [PDF]

Bennett, Scott; Paul Poast and Allan Stam. ``NewGene: An Introduction for Users.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. July 2019: 1579–1592. [PDF, NEWGENE SITE]

Carter, David and Paul Poast. "Barriers to Trade: How Border Walls Affect Trade Relations." International Organization. Forthcoming. [LINK, REPLICATION PAGE]

Fazal, Tanisha and Paul Poast. "War is Not Over: What the Optimists Get Wrong About Conflict." Foreign Affairs. November/December 2019: 74-83. [LINK, DATA PAGE]